Paper Portfolio
$1,000 theoretical portfolio — Kelly-sized. Live YES prices from the Polymarket API.
Total P&L (realized + unrealized)
+$476.28
unrealized loads live
Unrealized P&L (open)
—
6 open · $457 staked · Live prices
Realized P&L · Win rate
+$476.28
75% win rate (9/12 correct)
Open Positions6
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Live YES | Stake | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 5.0% | NO | 25% | — | $100 | — | Jul 22: YES 12% (entry 25) — +$15.5 MTM. Early-exit review below 8c; NFP Aug 7. |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | YES | 55% | — | $200 | — | Jul 22: YES 60.5% (entry 55) — +$20 MTM on $65K volume, best level since entry. Brent near $92 (5-wk high) keeps rebuilding the supply-inflation case; July-hike market rebounded 6.6→14.5c too. FV 60; trim half >64c, floor 48c. FOMC Jul 29. |
| Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | YES | 34% | — | $25 | — | Jul 22: YES 26.8% (entry 34) — -$5.3 MTM, firming with pos-010 on the oil-hike channel. |
| Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | YES | 77.6% | — | $82 | — | Jul 22: YES 84.8% — +$7.6 MTM, grinding. $92 Brent removes the last dovish argument. FV 88; efficiency review at 90c. FOMC Jul 29. |
| 10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | YES | 16.5% | — | $25 | — | Jul 22: YES 26.5% (entry 16.5) — +$15 MTM, best of the run. 10Y at 4.592 — only ~21bp from the 4.80 touch, and Brent $92 is pure term-premium fuel. FV raised 38 → 42. Exit <10c if 10Y <4.25 (not close). |
| US GDP Q2 = 1.5-2.0% (advance) | YES | 18% | — | $25 | — | Jul 22: YES 23.5% (entry 18) — +$7.6 MTM, gave back 3pp on thin volume. GDPNow still ~1.7; crowd's 2.0-2.5 down to 28.5c. BEA advance Jul 30 is 8 days out. FV 35, hold. |
Closed Positions12
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Exit YES | Stake | P&L | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | YES | 72.5% | 0% | $25 | -$25.00 | Incorrect | NBS printed 4.3% — outside the bracket. The five-session seller was right: Beijing chose candor (slowest growth since Q4 2022, Iran oil shock + weak demand). The print-regularity thesis assumed the statistical regime of 2020-2025; regimes change exactly when stimulus needs a permission slip. -$25, tuition for a regime lesson. |
| June CPI YoY = 3.9% | YES | 15% | 0% | $75 | -$75.00 | Incorrect | June CPI printed 3.5% YoY — below every forecast: our bracket (3.9), the crowd's favorite (3.8), and Cleveland's frozen 3.92. The model we trusted missed by 0.42pp, its worst miss in our sample; energy passthrough ran harder than the nowcast could see and core went flat (0.0% MoM). The winning bracket (≤3.6%) traded at ~2c pre-print — nobody held it. Full $75 stake lost. Second loss of the book; sized at 7.5% of budget for exactly this. Lesson kept: a frozen model is a point estimate, not a distribution — we paid 5:1 odds for its mode and the whole distribution shifted left. |
| Fed Hike at July 29 Meeting | YES | 14.6% | 24.5% | $25 | +$16.95 | Correct | Exited Jul 8 pre-minutes at 24.5c: +68% in 22 hours. The thesis was convergence to FedWatch (~26%), not a view on the decision — converged, so out. Fastest win of the book. |
| Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 | YES | 55% | 14.5% | $75 | -$55.23 | Incorrect | Exit trigger fired Jul 6: <20c before the Jul 19 checkpoint without confirmed transit recovery. IRGC corridor warnings + 8 weekend U-turns broke the 60-calls/day ramp thesis. First loss of the book. Sized at 7.5% of budget for exactly this scenario. |
| Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | NO | 16% | 5.5% | $125 | +$15.62 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 5.5c. The <3.0% path was dead (Fed at 3.50-3.75% with a hike bias). Same capital-efficiency logic as the pos-001 exit. |
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 6.0% | NO | 18% | 6.5% | $100 | +$14.02 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 6.5c. Edge exhausted — remaining ~$8 over six months wasn't worth $114 of tied capital. Recycled into the zero-cuts add. |
| Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | NO | 82% | 42% | $125 | +$277.78 | Correct | Early exit Jun 23 at ~42% YES (held NO). Iran MOU + WTI falling to $73 from $92 removes the path to 4.5%+ CPI in any remaining month. May peaked at 4.2% — the high water mark. Energy deflation now dominant. Extracted ~40pp from 82% YES entry. +$277.78 realized (+222% on stake). |
| US Recession 2026 | NO | 28% | 10% | $200 | +$50.00 | Correct | Exited Jun 22 at 10% YES (held NO). Hit stated exit target. FV ~8% — 2pp gap remaining not worth PCE Jun 25 two-way risk. Extracted ~18pp from 28% YES entry. |
| CPI May MoM = 0.6% | NO | 40% | 0% | $25 | +$16.67 | Correct | May CPI printed 0.5% MoM (below 0.6% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY = 4.3% | NO | 40% | 0% | $150 | +$100.00 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.3% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | NO | 38% | 0% | $150 | +$91.94 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.4% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| May Unemployment Rate = 4.3% | YES | 34% | 100% | $25 | +$48.53 | Correct | BLS confirmed May U/E = 4.3% on Jun 5 NFP report. Resolved YES. |
Cumulative P&L over time — $ (realized; live unrealized loads in browser)