We find gaps of 10+ points between
Polymarket prices and official data

The 10-year Treasury printed 4.80% on September 8 on the Treasury's own daily par yield curve, and Polymarket's 4.8%-touch contract closed and resolved YES at 22:21 UTC. We have been carrying a line about this every single session since September 1, when we sold the position on a 66c-bid gate that had been published continuously since August 20. The arithmetic is final now. 151.5152 shares from a $25 stake at 16.5c. We took $108.61 at a volume-weighted 71.69c. At resolution the shares pay $151.52. THE GATE COST $42.91, which is 172% of the original stake, against an $83.61 gain that still stands as the second-largest winner this book has produced. We are not revising the verdict: the trigger was written in public before it fired, every one of the five fills cleared above it, and a book that moves its gates when they hurt has no gates. But the honest headline is not 'process worked'. It is 'process worked and here is the invoice'. THE SECOND HALF IS WORSE AND WE ARE PUTTING IT IN THE SAME ENTRY RATHER THAN BURYING IT. On August 31 the barrier model - the one we retired on September 1 after five consecutive failures of its 5.00% consistency cross-check - priced this contract at 76.8 against a 67.5 market. It resolved at 100. On the last live question it was asked, the model we threw away was closer to the truth than the market was, and it was telling us to hold what the gate told us to sell. We are not reinstating it. A model that fails five straight cross-checks is not redeemed by one correct directional call, and the retirement was decided on a pre-commitment written before we knew this outcome, which is the only kind of rule worth having. What we are refusing to do is let the retirement stand in the record as costless.