https://macropilotai.com Daily screening of Polymarket macro markets. We find gaps of 10+ points between prediction market prices and official BLS/Fed data — every morning, fully documented. en-us Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-22/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-22/ Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Brent touched $92 — a five-week high, up from under $72 at the start of July — and the whole book is levered to it. A calendar correction first, in keeping with how we run: we'd flagged 'Japan CPI Wednesday' as today's catalyst, but the national June print actually landed July 18 (core cooled as ex… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-21/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-21/ Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 The war premium just became policy. Overnight the US administration reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports near Hormuz AND imposed a 20% toll on ALL cargo transiting the strait — a tariff on the world's most important waterway — while Yemen's Houthis declared their own naval blockade against … https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-20/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-20/ Mon, 20 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Three scan results today, and only one of them is a trade — which is the point. First, the trade that already happened: Friday evening's conditional entry executed itself. The automated check found GDPNow still at 1.7% and the US Q2 GDP 1.5-2.0% bracket offered at 18c (cheaper than the 24c we'd fla… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-17/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-17/ Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 The war premium is back, and it quietly re-arms half this book. Ten days ago we documented the 'decoupling' — Brent pinned near four-month lows while IRGC boats turned tankers around, because OPEC+ supply and soft demand outweighed the strait. That regime ended this week: with the US intensifying s… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-15/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-15/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Two losses in two days, and a correction of our own — this is the post where the site earns its 'fully documented' tagline or doesn't. First, the China post-mortem: the NBS printed Q2 GDP at 4.3% YoY, below the 4.5% consensus and outside our 4.6-4.9% bracket. pos-016 resolves at zero: -$25, record … https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-14/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-14/ Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 The referee spoke at 8:30 and the number was 3.5 — below the crowd's 3.8, below Cleveland's frozen 3.92, and below our 3.9% bracket, which resolves worthless. The flagship position is dead: -$75, the full stake, the book's second loss (9/11). Radical transparency means saying the next part plainly:… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-13/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-13/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Eve of the gauntlet. Twenty-four hours from now the June CPI print will have graded the flagship position, and the quiet of this Monday is the quiet of a book that has already made all its decisions. The overnight tape leaned our way at the margins: the dollar firmed, Treasury yields rose in Asian … https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-12/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-12/ Sun, 12 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Sunday-evening brief ahead of the biggest 48 hours in this book's history. The weekend did not stay quiet: the Fed Rate Hike 2026 market surged from 52.5c to 61.5c on $127K of weekend volume — the 'hike odds rising' narrative (Yahoo Finance) building into a Tuesday that now carries a DOUBLE catalys… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-10/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-10/ Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Four days to CPI, and the market is walking toward our bracket one grudging cent at a time. pos-014 (June CPI = 3.9%) trades at 20c — up from a 15c entry — while the Cleveland nowcast printed 3.92% for the FIFTH consecutive session. June's number is mathematically baked at this point: the model's r… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-09/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-09/ Thu, 09 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Vindication day, in three acts. Act one: yesterday's bizarre CPI-bracket migration — the crowd abandoning 3.8% for 4.0-4.2% while the Cleveland model stood still — REVERSED COMPLETELY within 24 hours. The 3.8% bracket is back at 52.6c (from 2.4c), the 4.0-4.2 complex collapsed to under 4c combined,… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-08/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-08/ Wed, 08 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 The fastest win in the book's history, and the strangest market move we've documented — both before 10am. First the win: yesterday's Fed-July entry (pos-015, $25 at 14.6c) converged to CME FedWatch overnight as the market repriced from 14.6c to 24.6c ahead of today's June FOMC minutes release. FedW… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-07/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-07/ Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Three new positions today — led by the widest gap we've ever published. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast (updated Jul 6) puts June CPI at 3.92% YoY, squarely in the 3.9% bracket — yet Polymarket's June Inflation market prices 3.9% at just 15c while crowding 3.8% at 51c. Cleveland's model has h… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-06/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-06/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Three portfolio actions this morning — including our first loss. Over the July 4-5 weekend, Iran turned the Hormuz reopening from a ramp into a standoff: IRGC patrol boats issued VHF warnings against the US-backed southern corridor, at least eight vessels U-turned trying to exit the Gulf (Bloomberg… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-03/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-03/ Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 CORRECTION FIRST: yesterday's note cited NFP June at ~110K, in-line. The actual BLS print, released Jul 2 at 8:30 ET, was +57,000 — less than half the ~113K consensus. We publish every miss, including our own: yesterday's flash was anchored to the ADP pre-signal and stale wire copy, and the correct… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-02/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-02/ Thu, 02 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 NFP June: ~110K, in-line with consensus (~110K; ADP pre-signaled +98K). After three consecutive blowout months (Mar +178K, Apr +115K, May +172K), June confirms the labor market is cooling but not cracking — the initial tariff-shock rebound has plateaued. The 150K deploy threshold for pos-010 was NO… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-01/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-07-01/ Wed, 01 Jul 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Big data day ahead of NFP tomorrow. June 30 Q2 close: S&P 7,449.36 (+0.12%), Nasdaq 26,213.72 (+1.59%), Dow 52,319.20. Q2 2026 final: S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%, Dow +12% — best quarter since 2020. This morning's data: (1) Japan Tankan Q2 Large Manufacturers: +22 vs +16 expected, up from +17 prior — an … https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-30/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-30/ Tue, 30 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Quarter-end Tuesday. Monday June 29 delivered a decisive reversal: S&P 500 +1.2% to 7,440.43, Nasdaq +2.0%, Dow +307 points to 52,183 — first close above 52,000 ever. Two catalysts drove the bounce: (1) Supreme Court ruled Fed Governor Lisa Cook remains in her post, and critically, the Court carved… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-29/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-29/ Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Week ahead brief. Last week was a bruising one for tech — Nasdaq fell 4.6% over five consecutive losing sessions, the worst run since April 2025. The drivers: AI capex shock ($452B combined 2026 capex for MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META, raising 'monetization justification' concerns), an NYT report that OpenA… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-25/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-25/ Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Big data day. Three events landed today: (1) PCE May: core +0.3% MoM (+3.4% YoY, from 3.3%), headline +0.5% MoM (+4.0% YoY, from 3.8%) — in line with consensus but the YoY acceleration to 4.0% headline is notable. Q1 GDP third estimate: 1.6% annualized (unchanged from second estimate). (2) Micron Q… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-24/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-24/ Wed, 24 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Morning brief (pre-market 4:43 AM ET). June 23 actual close: S&P 500 7,365.46 (-1.8% from 7,500.58 on June 22), Nasdaq 25,587.04 (-2.21%), Dow 51,666.84 (-0.09%) — note our intraday snapshot at 11:05 AM on June 23 read S&P at ~7,503; the full day selloff accelerated into the close. The June 23 cata… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-23/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-23/ Tue, 23 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Two portfolio actions today. Primary: closing pos-001 (Inflation 2026 > 4.5% NO) early for +$277.78 (+222% on stake). We entered in May when the market priced 82% probability of CPI exceeding 4.5% YoY at any point in 2026 — we bought the 'no, it won't get that high' side at 18¢. The thesis has play… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-22/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-22/ Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Monday bounce after Juneteenth weekend. S&P +1.08% to 7,500.58, Nasdaq +1.91% — tech chips led the rally. Intel +10.64% to $133.99 (all-time highs) on ongoing excitement around the Apple US foundry partnership; NVIDIA +2.95%. Lebanon risk partially faded over the weekend: Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-19/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-19/ Fri, 19 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Juneteenth (US markets closed) + Iran MOU signing day. The most consequential Juneteenth in modern history: the US lifted the naval blockade on Iranian ports, first tankers carrying Iranian oil already exited the blockade zone, and the formal MOU ceremony at Bürgenstock confirmed the deal is now in… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-18/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-18/ Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 The most important single-day re-pricing in this portfolio's history. Overnight, Polymarket Fed hike 2026 surged from ~37% to 57% — a 20pp gap close in one session after the market digested yesterday's hawkish dot plot (9 of 18 members, median 3.8%). CME FedWatch is at ~66%. pos-010, entered at 55¢… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-17/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-17/ Wed, 17 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Warsh verdict: hawkish shock. Fed held at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but the dot plot delivered: 9 of 18 FOMC members projected a 2026 rate hike, 6 projected multiple hikes. Median dot 3.8% (was 3.4% in March). Easing bias formally dropped. Warsh did not submit his own dot — citing his long-held skept… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-16/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-16/ Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 FOMC Day 1 — Warsh presser tomorrow is the only thing that matters. BoJ hiked to 1.0% today (7-1 vote, highest since 1995). WTI fell further to $80.65 as Iran deal disinflation bids. Polymarket Fed hike 2026 drifted to 33% — pos-010 now -22pp adverse from 55c entry. This is the maximum-pressure mom… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-15/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-15/ Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Iran deal confirmed — Warsh presser tomorrow is everything. Trump announced Sunday night 'the deal is now complete.' US-Iran MOU signed: war ends, Strait of Hormuz reopens within 30 days, 60 days of nuclear talks. Signing ceremony in Switzerland June 19. Market reaction: WTI crashed to ~$82 (three-… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-12/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-12/ Fri, 12 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 Iran deal imminent + FOMC 4 days out. Trump confirmed 'documents are in final shape' on a US-Iran ceasefire — WTI cratered to $86 (-$4.80 from Jun 11, -$6 from our Jun 10 entry ref of $92). The disinflationary shock pushed Fed hike Polymarket to 50.5% — adverse 4.5pp from our pos-010 entry at 55c. … https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-11/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-11/ Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 ECB hiked +25bp to 2.25% today — first hike since September 2023 — exactly as priced. S&P 500 fell further to ~7,267 (-1.6%), now -3.5% from the June 5 NFP print as rate-fear repricing continues. WTI consolidated at ~$90.80. Our two new positions (pos-010, pos-011) face their first test: Polymarket… https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-10/ https://macropilotai.com/analysis/2026-06-10/ Wed, 10 Jun 2026 08:30:00 +0000 CPI day + two new positions entered. May CPI printed 4.2% YoY / 0.5% MoM — all three thresholds resolved in our favour: +$208.61 realized, bringing total P&L to +$257.14. We immediately redeployed that capital: pos-010 (Fed rate hike 2026 YES at 55¢, $200) and pos-011 (Fed rate end 2026 = 4.0% YES …